Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M, unemployment rate may surge to 32%, St. Louis Fed says

Contents
  1. Full Coverage – US unemployment projected to hit 32.1%
  2. Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates
  3. Job Losses Could Total 47 Million, Unemployment Rate May Hit 32%, Fed Estimates
  4. Fed Estimates 47 Million People Could Lose Their Job
  5. New Forecast: 47M Jobs Lost
  6. Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M, unemployment rate may surge to 32%, St. Louis Fed says
  7. Coronavirus Could Lead To 47 Million Lost Jobs, Says St. Louis Fed
  8. As gov’t forces businesses to close, analysis from the Fed says we could see 47 million job losses, 32% unemployment
  9. What 47 Million People Being Laid Off Looks
  10. US Central Bank: 47 Million Americans May Go Jobless Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
  11. Fed: Virus Job Losses Could Total 47 Million, Unemployment Rate May Hit 32%
  12. Fed Sees 47 Million Jobs Lost and Unemployment at 32 Percent
  13. Fed: coronavirus could mean 47 million laid off, 32% unemployment rate – Business Insider
  14. 47 Million Americans Work in Jobs at High Risk of Layoffs, Federal Reserve Analysis Says
  15. OUTBREAK UPDATE: Federal Reserve Says Unemployment Rate Could Hit 32% | Sean Hannity
  16. Fed Economists Warn US Unemployment Rate Could Soon Reach 32%—During Great Depression It Peaked at 25%
  17. Fed Says 47 Million of U.S. Jobs Are at Risk amid Coronavirus, Unemployment May Reach…
  18. 32% American’s Are Predicted To Be Unemployed Due To Coronavirus
  19. Coronavirus could put 47 million people work, says the Fed
  20. Fed economists warn US unemployment rate could soon reach 32 percent — during Great Depression it peaked at 25 percent
  21. Coronavirus: US unemployment figures – 26 March 2020
  22. Job Losses During Pandemic Could Total 47 Million, the Fed Estimates
  23. Fed Economist Suggests Country Could Hit 32 Percent Unemployment without Coronavirus Assistance
  24. Federal Reserve predicts 32% unemployment rate thanks to coronavirus
  25. Coronavirus impact may lead to unemployment rate over 30 percent, economists say
  26. St. Louis Fed economist: 47 million could lose their jobs in Q2 due to virus
  27. Fed economists estimate unemployment rate could hit 32 percent
  28. Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, Fed estimates
  29. Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32 percent, Fed estimates
  30. Coronavirus could hit 47 million jobs in the US, unemployment rate seen spiking 32%, Fed estimates
  31. Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate
  32. Current Labor Statistics
  33. High-Risk Occupations
  34. Occupations and Contact Intensity
  35. Calculating Second-Quarter Unemployment Rate
  36. Summary of Calculations
  37. Notes and References
  38. Additional Resources

Full Coverage – US unemployment projected to hit 32.1%

Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M, unemployment rate may surge to 32%, St. Louis Fed says

Unemployment could top 32% as 47 million Americans lose their jobs, according to a St. Louis Fed estimate.

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Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to the Federal Reserve.

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Job Losses Could Total 47 Million, Unemployment Rate May Hit 32%, Fed Estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve…

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Fed Estimates 47 Million People Could Lose Their Job

Millions of Americans across the country have lost their jobs or have seen their wages, hours, or salaries cut, but according to the Federal Reserve, the worst is …

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Joe Hillverified_user

joe_hill

6 weeks of tightly locking down our nation is possible (other countries have done it) n’ let’s be blunt: A month and a half of staying at home is not exactly sacrifice on the scale of WWII or the Great Depression. This only works if the Fed steps up to help renters, jobless, etc.

8/10/20 11:39 AM

Sven Henrichverified_user

NorthmanTrader

In the last 12 months the Fed has injected the equivalent of nearly $10,000 per US citizen into financial markets. And Congress is squabbling about $600 in unemployment checks.

8/7/20 2:25 PM

Raul Ruizverified_user

RepRaulRuizMD

California’s FED-ED program has extended unemployment benefits for another 20 weeks. Read more about the extension and if you qualify below. www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/coronavirus-2019/fed-ed.htm

8/6/20 9:22 PM

David Sirotaverified_user

davidsirota

The Federal Reserve is drowning corporate CEOs in cash, while Republican senators insists that $600 a week is too generous a benefit for jobless workers struggling to pay rent

8/4/20 10:43 PM

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New Forecast: 47M Jobs Lost

The head of the St. Louis Fed predicted last week that US unemployment will hit 30% before the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic is over.

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Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M, unemployment rate may surge to 32%, St. Louis Fed says

Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expect the economy shed 100000 jobs in March, the first losses in almost 10 years and bringing to end a record …

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Coronavirus Could Lead To 47 Million Lost Jobs, Says St. Louis Fed

(Updated 1:50 p.m. EDT, March 30, 2020). Topline: The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs next quarter, according to estimates by economists at the …

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As gov’t forces businesses to close, analysis from the Fed says we could see 47 million job losses, 32% unemployment

How bad could it all get?

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What 47 Million People Being Laid Off Looks

An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis did an analysis showing that upwards of 47 million people could be laid off by June.

ampvideo_Mar 31

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US Central Bank: 47 Million Americans May Go Jobless Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Economists project that the number of layoffs in the US could possibly spike to 47 million as states across the country increase COVID-19 novel coronavirus …

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Fed: Virus Job Losses Could Total 47 Million, Unemployment Rate May Hit 32%

The Federal Reserve reportedly estimates that the coronavirus economic crisis could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%. There are …

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Fed Sees 47 Million Jobs Lost and Unemployment at 32 Percent

A Fed estimate shows the U.S. unemployment rate in the second quarter will ly hover around 32 percent, while in a worst-case scenario, over 40 percent.

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Fed: coronavirus could mean 47 million laid off, 32% unemployment rate – Business Insider

More than 47 million Americans could lose their jobs in the second quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic, which would send the unemployment rate to 32%, …

ampvideo_Mar 31

bookmark_border more_vert play_arrowThe U.S. Federal Reserve analysts said the unemployment rate may soar past 32 percent and the coronavirus freeze on the economy could cost 47 million Americans their jobs.KENA BETANCUR / Stringer/Getty Images

47 Million Americans Work in Jobs at High Risk of Layoffs, Federal Reserve Analysis Says

The U.S. Federal Reserve analysts said the unemployment rate may soar past 32 percent and the coronavirus freeze on the economy could cost 47 million …

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OUTBREAK UPDATE: Federal Reserve Says Unemployment Rate Could Hit 32% | Sean Hannity

Leading economists at the Federal Reserve produced a report on the Coronavirus’s potential impact on the US economy this week; projecting nearly…

ampvideo_Mar 30

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Fed Economists Warn US Unemployment Rate Could Soon Reach 32%—During Great Depression It Peaked at 25%

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is un any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 …

ampvideo_Mar 31

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Fed Says 47 Million of U.S. Jobs Are at Risk amid Coronavirus, Unemployment May Reach…

The unemployment rate in the U.S. could reach a staggering 32.1% in Q2 as 47 million workers are expected to lose jobs amid the coronavirus.

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32% American’s Are Predicted To Be Unemployed Due To Coronavirus

Trending | Unemployment has been a huge effect of the coronavirus pandemic in the US and is only increasing by the day.

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Coronavirus could put 47 million people work, says the Fed

Spread of COVID-19 predicted to create a jobless rate that tops the Great Depression.

ampvideo_Mar 30

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Fed economists warn US unemployment rate could soon reach 32 percent — during Great Depression it peaked at 25 percent

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is un any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 …

ampvideo_Mar 31

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Coronavirus: US unemployment figures – 26 March 2020

The impact of the spread of Covid-19 across the United States of America has seen a surge in jobless claims, with more stimulus added by Donald Trump.

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Job Losses During Pandemic Could Total 47 Million, the Fed Estimates

Economists at the Federal Reserve’s St. Louis office have run the numbers and they’re looking pretty grim. The Fed estimates that 47 million Americans will lose …

ampvideo_Mar 31

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Fed Economist Suggests Country Could Hit 32 Percent Unemployment without Coronavirus Assistance

An economist with the St. Louis Fed is projecting coronavirus could cost 47 million Americans their jobs, resulting in a 32.1 percent unemployment rate.

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Federal Reserve predicts 32% unemployment rate thanks to coronavirus

Experts predict the worst of the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak will result in a higher unemployment rate than at the worst point in the …

ampvideo_Mar 31

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Coronavirus impact may lead to unemployment rate over 30 percent, economists say

Economists at the Federal Reserve are predicting that the unemployment rate will top 30 percent due to the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

ampvideo_Mar 31

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St. Louis Fed economist: 47 million could lose their jobs in Q2 due to virus

The “back-of-the-envelope” estimates also forecast an unemployment rate of 32% for the quarter.

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Fed economists estimate unemployment rate could hit 32 percent

Economists at the Federal Reserve’s St. Louis District are now projecting the unemployment rate in the United States could hit 32.1 percent, placing 47 million …

ampvideo_Mar 30

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Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, Fed estimates

The ‘back-of-the-envelope’ estimates by an economist at the St Louis Federal Reserve are astronomical because this ‘is a rather unique shock that is un any …

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Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32 percent, Fed estimates

Economists at the Federal Reserve have projected a 32.1 percent unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis. That figure would top the Great …

ampvideo_Mar 30

bookmark_border more_vert Coronavirus could hit 47 million jobs in the US, unemployment rate seen spiking 32%, Fed estimates | World – Gulf News

Coronavirus could hit 47 million jobs in the US, unemployment rate seen spiking 32%, Fed estimates

The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections. There are nearly …

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Source

Источник: https://www.thenewnormalsupply.com/full-coverage-us-unemployment-projected-to-hit-32-1/

Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate

Coronavirus job losses could hit 47M, unemployment rate may surge to 32%, St. Louis Fed says

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

By Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Economist

As state and local governments implement social-distancing measures to suppress and contain the spread of COVID-19, many businesses are faced with a large decrease in sales and revenue. This slowdown of economic activity could inevitably lead to solvency and liquidity problems that result in workers being laid off.

This negative shock does not equally affect all businesses, sectors or occupations. Many workers in professional services, for example, are able to work from home and continue their activities with minimal disruption. Others—who work in occupations that involve direct physical contact with customers, such as restaurant waiters—are ly to see their jobs affected by social-distancing measures.

In this blog post, we combine different types of statistics on industry and occupation composition to try to arrive at a back-of-the-envelope estimate for what the unemployment rate may be at the end of the second quarter of 2020.

Current Labor Statistics

Our starting point is the state of the U.S. economy as of February 2020. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED), the civilian labor force consisted of 164.5 million people, and the unemployment rate was 3.5%.

This means that there were around 5.76 million unemployed people in the U.S. in February. In our calculation, we assumed that the labor force remains constant and that none of those 5.

76 million people would be able to find a job in the second quarter of 2020.

The important question is: How many people, on net, will be laid off during Q2? To estimate this number, we combined data from two recent blog posts that tried to compute how many jobs are exposed to layoff risk due to social distancing.

High-Risk Occupations

In a recent blog post, Charles Gascon used 2018 occupational data from the BLS to estimate how many employees are at high risk of layoff due to social-distancing measures. Gascon classified 808 occupations according to three criteria:

  • Whether those occupations are essential to public health or safety
  • Whether they involve work that can be completed off-site
  • Whether they are salaried

He estimated that 66.8 million people are employed in occupations that are at high risk of layoff. These include occupations in sales, production, and food preparation and services, among others.

Occupations and Contact Intensity

In another recent blog post, Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu combined individual-level data from the 2017 American Community Survey with information on occupational contact intensity from O*NET to determine how many people work in occupations that require the worker to perform tasks in close physical proximity to other people. They found that 27.3 million workers have occupations with a high contact intensity. These include barbers, hairstylists, food and beverage serving workers, and flight attendants, among others.

Calculating Second-Quarter Unemployment Rate

These two numbers were obtained by applying different methodologies and classifications to two different datasets. This means that while there may be significant overlap, each measure will also be capturing some aspects that the other ignores.

For this reason, we simply took the average of those two numbers as a point estimate for the total number of workers who will be laid off during the second quarter. This resulted in 47.05 million people being laid off during this period.

Summing to the initial number of unemployed in February, this resulted in a total number of unemployed persons of 52.81 million. Given the assumption of a constant labor force, this resulted in an unemployment rate of 32.1%.

  1. Civilian labor force in February 2020 = 164.5 million (BLS via FRED)
  2. Unemployment rate in February 2020 = 3.5% (BLS via FRED)
  3. Unemployed persons in February 2020 = 5.76 million (#1 * #2)
  4. Workers in occupations with high risk of layoff = 66.8 million (Gascon blog post)
  5. Workers in high contact-intensive occupations = 27.3 million (Famiglietti/Leibovici/Santacreu blog post)
  6. Estimated layoffs in second quarter 2020 = 47.05 million (Average of #4 and #5)
  7. Unemployed persons in second quarter 2020 = 52.81 million (#3 + #6)
  8. Unemployment rate in second quarter 2020 = 32.1% (#7 / #1)

Summary of Calculations

It is worth emphasizing that this is a point estimate that makes several important assumptions.

One way to think about how to bound this estimate is to take the Famiglietti-Leibovici-Santacreu number minus 10 million (workers in education and health care, who are less ly to be laid off) as an optimistic estimate for the number of layoffs during the second quarter and the Gascon number as a more pessimistic estimate. This results in unemployment rates between 10.5% and 40.6%.

There are other important caveats:

  • First, these calculations assume that the labor force is constant and exclude the fact that some recently unemployed workers may be discouraged and not looking for employment (and thus would not count as unemployed).
  • Second, many businesses may send workers home with pay instead of laying them off outright.
  • Third, these calculations do not account for any potential effects of fiscal measures, such as payroll support measures for small businesses or changes in the generosity of unemployment insurance that may be implemented between now and the end of June.

Moreover, one can argue that the expected duration of unemployment matters more than the unemployment rate itself, especially if the recovery is quick (and so duration is short). These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is un any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years.

Notes and References

1 These figures are available on the FRED pages for the Civilian Labor Force Level and the Unemployment Rate.

2 COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?

3 Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations

4 For examples of fiscal policies that can affect unemployment rates, see Dupor, Bill. “Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated, and Severe Viral Outbreaks.” Economic Synopses, March 17, 2020.

Additional Resources

Источник: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rate

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